The Wind Challenge FAQ sheet

 

  1. Q: What is the purpose of The Wind Challenge?

A: The Wind Challenge is an online challenge to demonstrate how digitalization and life extension impacts the financial profitability of wind sites. 

  1. Q: Where does the data come from?

A: Sentient Science has digitalized 35% of the wind turbine model types available to the market. The materials science models are derived from 6 of those turbine types. The operational data is a fictitious data set developed for the game to show how the data science from the operational and site conditions impact the life of the digital models.

  1. Q: How is the life extension calculated?

A: The life estimates in the Wind Challenge are based on Sentient Science’s combination of material science, operational data, historical failure data and data science expressed as probability distributions for each subcomponent modeled, and numerically rolled up to a probability distribution for the assembly.  Specific LifeX actions modify the probability distributions of the subcomponents impacted, which subsequently rolls-up to and extends the life of the assembly. 

  1. Q: How is the financial Improved Outcome calculated?

A: The Improved Outcome shown on the leaderboard is the Net Present Savings (summed across all turbines) multiplied by a Business Value Assessment (BVA) factor that Sentient has historically found to be representative of the overall value to a customer beyond the pure O&M impact of LifeX (specifically into areas of fleet-wide asset management, supply chain and risk management).

  1. Q: How is the Net Present Savings calculated?

A: The Net Present Savings is calculated as follows.  Each turbine has a Net Present Repair Cost (NPRC) which represents the discounted cost of maintaining the turbine.  The default (baseline) scenario is the NPRC calculated with no LifeX actions scheduled and assumes a complete gearbox replacement at the end of life.  As LifeX actions are scheduled, the NPRC is updated to include the cost of the LifeX actions, as well as the complete gearbox replacement which is pushed out in time due to life extension.  The Net Present Savings is calculated by taking the difference between the Net Present Repair Cost (NPRC) of the scenario with LifeX actions and the Net Present Repair Cost (NPRC) of the baseline failure scenario.

  1. Q: Why can the life extension change if I schedule an action in the future vs today?

A:  The Wind Challenge is based on probability estimates of failure.  By scheduling a repair to a future date, you may be taking on risk that the component might fail before you’re able to fix it.  This probabilistic risk is reflected in the expected LifeX and subsequent Net Present Savings.  This behavior is more likely to be noted on older turbines which are closer to failure (red and orange turbines), and less likely to be observed on green turbines.

  1. Q: How are the highest risk components calculated and determined in the software?

A: Since each subcomponent is modeled with a probability distribution, the appropriate reliability calculations can be performed to determine the ranked-order listing of which subcomponents are probabilistically most likely to be the cause of the failure.

  1. Q: How will the ad hoc life extension actions be used outside of The Wind Challenge?

A: Sentient Science has created a panel of judges to assess the validity of ad hoc actions added to the game. At a later date, actions that have been given the thumbs up by the panel of experts will be simulated in the DigitalClone software to predict life and financial impact to be added into The Wind Challenge going forward. 

  1. What do the acronyms in the game stand for? 

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